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16 Jun 2025
Notes on April's figures and UK's economic health
What do the latest April figures (£80.2bn total receipts, £4.3bn increase) tell us about the UK's economic health?
The latest figures from HMRC, paint a picture of fiscal resilience, but not necessarily a thriving economy. The rise can be attributed to frozen tax thresholds which have pushed more people into higher tax bands, alongside inflation and structural changes to National Insurance.
When you put this alongside the 0.3% drop in GDP during April, the biggest monthly fall we’ve seen in a year and a half, it’s clear that the rise in tax receipts isn’t down to a surge in productivity or business activity. What we’re really seeing is the impact of the current tax setup and the timing of policy changes, rather than genuine economic growth.
So, while the headline figures may suggest robustness, it’s not a moment to celebrate booming growth, it’s a reminder of how reliant public finances have become on carefully engineered tax mechanisms rather than true economic momentum.
Are there any interesting/notable changes in April's receipts?
Yes, the April data reveals some shifts in tax receipts that hint at behavioural and policy-driven trends in the economy.
Stamp Duty, for example, saw a 32% increase, with receipts rising to £1.8 billion and Inheritance Tax being another area, with receipts up by 14% year-on-year, which could be linked to a mix of rising property values and frozen thresholds.
How significant is the £2.9bn increase in Income Tax/NICs and what does this signal?
The £2.9 billion increase in Income Tax and National Insurance receipts was arguably the most significant element in April’s tax picture. Bringing the total up to £47.9 billion for the month, this reflects not only increased earnings among UK workers but also the impact of the recent changes to employer NI Contributions (NIC). From April 6, the employer NIC rate rose from 13.8% to 15%, with a lower threshold of £5,000 now in place which has brought in an extra £2.1 billion in April.
This early return from the NIC rise highlights how quickly policy changes can bolster public finances, but it also raises questions about the cost to employers. My own business community has voiced concerns that these additional costs may lead to reductions in hiring, increased prices for consumers, or cutbacks in other areas.
Should SME advisers be preparing clients for policy changes based on revenue sources/patterns?
I'd say rather general best practice that will future proof them, their business, cashflow and tax liabilities. The general economic and political climate is likely to remain incredibly tough for SMEs for the foreseeable, sadly. We should be using every tactic and asset available to us – and whether it’s manually putting money aside for a rainy day or automating savings through platforms like Money Squirrel, it’s not just a nice to do but what I see to be a business imperative.
What tax planning advice should accountants give clients given these trends?
Open a savings account (or more than one). If you already have one, check you're getting the highest rate available to you within your criteria. If nothing else, take the VAT proportion of incoming payments and put it in there - earning you valuable interest while waiting for HMRC. Wherever possible, build up a cash buffer for your business and have it earning something in the background.
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